A | TnB Global Outsource的董事Lily Tan（站立者）表示，随着夫妻共享产假增加，公司将不得不重新设计工作岗位。(图：CNA)政府分阶段增加夫妻共享产假，鼓励人们多生育。
Inflation showed its sticky nature in July, rising slightly as increases in services costs offset a decline in the price of goods, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a metric closely followed by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the 12-month period. That was in line with estimates.
The core index, stripping out energy and food costs, rose 0.2% and 4.2%, respectively. Last month, the annual rate of increase was 3% and 4.1%.
Other data in the release showed spending and income up.
“Condition of the American consumer remains rock solid,” RSM US LLP Principal & Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on X, formerly Twitter. He noted that spending was up 0.8%, inflation-adjusted spending was up 0.6% and 2.8% on a three-month annualized pace – placing some risk on the company’s 2.1% forecast for gross domestic product growth in the third quarter. He also pointed out that income was up 0.2%, while wages, salaries and compensation were up 0.4%.”
While the PCE number is perhaps higher than the Fed would like, Chairman Jerome Powell said in his recent speech at the central bank’s summer symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, noted that “on a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July.”
But he also cautioned that the path to the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target will require that interest rates remain high for some time to come.
“Turning to the outlook, although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role,” Powell said. “Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.”
Markets seem unfazed by the messaging. In recent days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been on an upward run and is positioned to open up 150 points at the opening.
“Headlines touting a soft landing are increasing, the consensus seems to be that a soft landing is the most likely scenario, this seems like a unicorn scenario, but mixed economic data makes predicting a recession difficult,” said Shana Orczyk Sissel, CEO and founder of Banrion Capital Management. “We see clear signs of broad economic weakness, but inflation is falling, employment is strong, and the consumer is spending, so it's hard to really see a recession occurring this year.”
Many economists have pointed out that getting inflation down to the 3% range from the 9% of last summer, while an accomplishment, will prove easier than wringing the last 1% out.
“While signs point to a continued slowdown in inflation over time, certain categories give us pause as we close out 2023 and head into 2024,” said Joe Davis, chief global economist at Vanguard. “The decline in house prices appears to have abated, which means that the contribution from shelter to core inflation next year may stabilize if not increase. Upside inflation risk is also present in healthcare services where insurance prices are expected to rise this October along with a continued upward pressure on labor demand in the sector, thus suggesting higher wage costs.”
“Our baseline trajectory anticipates a gradual decline in the pace of inflation with core PCE staying well above 3% through YE 2023 and remaining slightly above 2% by YE 2024,” Davis added.
。这一政策虽使为人父母者欢喜，但也引起了中小型企业在人员管理和业务持续性方面的担忧。据新传媒英文新闻网CNA报道，中小型企业对公司运营可能受到的影响感到担忧。TnB Global Outsource的董事Lily Tan表示，如何管理工作负荷是关键问题，公司将不得不重新设计工作岗位，并调整不同团队成员的任务。人力管理变得繁杂 Lily Tan指出，公司在员工宣布怀孕后会立即开始准备填补未来的空缺，必要时也会进行跨部门培训。但在会计行业中，每项工作任务有不同的期限，聘请新的临时员工可能会带来干扰。她表示，培训新员工接替现有员工的职位可能需要三到四个月的时间，具体取决于新员工的能力，这无疑会对公司的业务造成压力。Emplifi人力资源公司总监Juliet Tan则指出，当一家公司只有一名员工负责关键业务时，安排替补人员变得尤为困难。她提到，如果聘用一名新的全职员工，原员工返回工作岗位时，公司将面临双重人员编制的问题。制定操作程序 确保业务不受影响 中小企业商会会长（ASME）洪煜建议企业加强人力资源流程，明确员工角色和职责。他也建议企业进行风险评估，提供明确的标准作业程序（SOP）和知识库，以确保在员工短期内离职时，业务不受影响。虽然新政策或会对企业造成影响，但Lily Tan认为，长期来看，这项政策将有助于提高国家生育率，对于企业和社会都有积极的作用。
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